Google+ Hits 10 Million Users, Expected To Reach 20 Million By Weekend

Whoa! Did Google just surpass the 10 million figure mark? Yes says founder of Ancestry.com and serial entrepreneur Paul Allen. Paul spent hours last weekend analyzing data from US Census Bureau to come up with a rough estimate of the number of users on Google+.

His surname-based analysis shows that the number of Google+ users worldwide reached 7.3 million yesterday – up from 1.7 million users on July 4th – a 350% increase in six days. He says he is finding it tough to keep up with the exponential growth of the site.

His latest figure put the number of users at 9.5 million and by the time the article is published, I expect it to cross 10 million. He notes that the Invite button will push that figure to 20 million by the weekend.

He writes,”My model is simple. I start with US Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S. to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates. My ratio is 1 US user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users. That ratio was calculated on July 4th through a laborious effort, and I haven’t updated it since. That is definitely a weakness in my model that I hope to address soon. The ratio will likely change over time.”

Earlier in the day, Bill Gross wrote on his Google+ account, “I predict that Google+ will go from 0 to 100,000,000 users faster than any other service in history.”

The initial euphoria around the site and impressive set of features appear to have triggered mass adoption. Remember, Google+ is still in infancy and we can expect it to fire all its cylinders in coming days.

Posted in: Google, Tech News